POL Tokenomics Simulator

The POL Tokenomics Simulator is an interactive sensitivity model built into the main POLTRACK dashboard. It starts from the same live Polygon Chain and POL data as the dashboard, then lets you change network activity, POL price, and annual inflation independently.

The simulator recalculates protocol fees, POL-denominated burn, illustrative staker allocation, staking APR, 30-day net supply change, and effective supply through October 2033. Results update immediately as an input changes.

The simulator is a deterministic "what if" tool, not a forecast, price target, governance proposal, or claim about future Polygon activity.

Entering and leaving simulation mode

Select What if? POL Tokenomics near the top of the main dashboard. Simulation mode switches to a light monochrome interface and displays a persistent status bar so modeled values cannot be confused with live values.

The simulation always starts from:

1× activity;
the current POL/USD price from the live POLTRACK data feed;
2% annual inflation, which is the current canonical gross-emission baseline.

Use Reset to return all three inputs to those defaults while remaining in simulation mode. The active mode and selected inputs are stored locally in your browser, so refreshing or reopening the dashboard restores the same scenario. Use Exit simulation to return to the live dashboard and clear that locally saved scenario. Simulation inputs are not written to the database and do not change the public snapshot files.

The three inputs

Input	Range and presets	Default	What it controls
Network activity	`0.25×`, `0.5×`, `1×`, `2×`, `3×`, `5×`, `10×`, `25×`	`1×`	Transactions and USD protocol fees
POL price	`$0.01` to `$10`, logarithmic slider with price presets	Current live price	Conversion of fixed USD fee flows into POL, modeled market cap, and security budget
Annual inflation	`0%`, `0.5%`, `1%`, `1.5%`, `2%`, `2.5%`, `3%`, `3.5%`, `4%`	`2%`	Gross issuance, emission-funded staking APR, net supply change, and projected gross supply

The logarithmic price slider gives useful control across a 1,000-fold range. A linear slider would compress almost every sub-dollar value into a very small part of the track.

Fixed USD fee per transaction

The model holds the current 30-day average USD fee per transaction constant. This reflects the explicit simulation assumption that execution cost in USD does not rise automatically when activity or POL price changes.

Let:

A be the selected activity multiplier;
P be the selected POL price;
P₀ be the current live POL price;
F₀ be current average daily protocol fees in USD.

Then:

Scenario transactions/day = Live transactions/day × A
Scenario protocol fees/day (USD) = F₀ × A
Fee per transaction (USD) = fixed live 30d average

The current base-fee and priority-fee shares are also held constant. Activity changes the size of the flow, not its composition.

Converting USD fees into POL

POL-denominated fee flows move inversely with the selected price. This is why the same USD fee flow burns or allocates more POL at a low token price and fewer POL at a high token price.

For any live POL-denominated fee flow X₀:

Scenario POL flow = X₀ × A × (P₀ / P)

The same normalized factor is applied to:

Base Fees accrued toward permanent burn;
the canonical trailing burn run rate;
priority-fee POL flows;
illustrative fee-derived staker allocation and fee APR.

USD fees do not change when only the POL price changes. The number of POL represented by those fees does.

Burn calculation

The long-term supply projection uses POLTRACK's canonical trailing 240-calendar-day Base Fee burn rate. The longer window reduces sensitivity to short-lived activity spikes and batch effects.

Scenario burn/day (POL) = Live 240d burn/day × A × (P₀ / P)
Future burn at date t = Scenario burn/day × elapsed calendar days

The 30-day net-supply card uses Base Fees accrued over the 30-day fee window. It does not substitute the 240-day projection window into the 30-day calculation.

Annual inflation and gross issuance

The inflation control changes gross POL issuance independently of activity, fees, burn, and price. The selected annual rate is held constant and compounded through the projection horizon.

The canonical live projection is the current 2% compound-emission curve. For a selected annual inflation rate i, projected gross supply is adjusted from that canonical path:

Scenario gross supply(t)
  = Canonical 2% gross supply(t)
  × ((1 + i) / 1.02)^(elapsed days / 365)

The 2% preset therefore reproduces the live canonical gross-supply path exactly. At 0%, gross supply remains at today's anchor. Higher rates produce faster compound issuance.

The current staking-versus-treasury emission split is preserved when the rate changes. Thirty-day emission and the emission-derived staking APR scale in direct proportion to the selected rate:

Scenario 30d emission = Live 30d emission × (i / 2%)
Scenario emission APR = Live emission APR × (i / 2%)

At 0%, both modeled gross emission and emission-derived APR are zero. Fee-derived APR can still remain positive.

Net supply and the 2033 projection

Thirty-day net supply change is:

30d net supply change
  = Modeled 30d gross emission
  − Modeled 30d Base Fees accrued toward burn

For every projection date:

Effective supply(t)
  = max(
      Scenario gross supply(t)
      − permanent burn already realized
      − modeled future Base Fee burn(t),
      0
    )

If effective supply reaches zero, the chart remains at a zero floor. The interface shows the first month in which that happens and marks assumptions beyond that point as infeasible. It does not allow the curve to "resurrect" after the modeled supply has been exhausted.

Staker allocation and staking APR

The fee-derived staker allocation remains an illustrative PIP-85 model and is not labeled as active settled distribution. It scales with the priority-fee POL flow and selected price. The emission-derived APR changes only with the inflation input.

Illustrative staking APR
  = fee-derived APR
  + emission-derived APR

The model keeps current staked supply constant. It does not attempt to predict how validators or delegators would change their stake in response to a scenario.

What the simulator does not model

The simulator deliberately keeps the model small and interpretable. It does not model:

endogenous feedback between POL price and network activity;
blockspace capacity, congestion, or a changing gas market;
a changing USD fee per transaction;
future changes to the base-fee versus priority-fee mix;
changing validator count, staked supply, delegation behavior, or commission;
future governance decisions, emission-manager changes, or treasury policy;
market rank, liquidity, slippage, or price discovery;
demand destruction when fees, burn, or supply reach extreme values.

Blockspace Load remains a live observed dashboard metric and is not multiplied in simulation mode.

How to interpret extreme scenarios

A result such as zero effective supply is not a prediction that all POL will disappear. It means the selected constant assumptions are internally unsustainable before the horizon. Real network fees, price, activity, protocol policy, staking behavior, or demand would almost certainly change before such a mechanical path could continue unchanged.

Likewise, a very high illustrative fee APR at a low POL price is a sensitivity result. It assumes current staked supply and the selected fee policy remain fixed while the same USD value converts into many more POL.

Use extreme inputs to identify which assumptions dominate the model, not as expected outcomes.

Data windows and refresh behavior

The simulator inherits the live dashboard's canonical dataset and refresh schedule. Key inputs include:

30-day average transactions and USD fee intensity;
the current POL/USD price;
30-day Base Fee and priority-fee flow measurements;
the trailing 240-day Base Fee burn run rate for the long-term projection;
current effective, gross, circulating, and staked POL supply;
the active 2% gross-emission projection through October 2033.

For the broader accounting definitions and source hierarchy, read Methodology & Data Sources. For the live sections surrounding the simulator, read the POL Tokenomics Dashboard guide.

Common Questions

Is the POL Tokenomics Simulator a forecast?

No. It is a deterministic sensitivity model that holds selected assumptions constant so their mechanical effects can be inspected.

Does changing POL price predict a future market price?

No. Price is an independent user input. The simulator does not estimate or imply what POL should be worth.

Why is fee per transaction fixed in USD?

This is an explicit scenario assumption. It separates changes in network usage from changes in POL price and makes the token-denominated fee conversion visible.

Why can effective supply reach zero?

At sufficiently high activity and low POL price, the constant modeled burn can exceed gross issuance and available effective supply. The zero floor identifies when those fixed assumptions become infeasible.

Does the simulator change live POLTRACK data?

No. The active mode and inputs are saved only in local browser storage until you select Exit simulation. They are never written to POLTRACK databases. Public dashboard data and downloadable snapshots remain unchanged.